题目：Global Supply Network Under Tariff War:  Firm Performance, Network Structure, and Tariff Equilibrium

主讲人：贺舟  中国科学院大学经济与管理学院副教授、博士生导师

时间：2021年12月24日（周五）12：15-13：30

地点：中国科学院大学中关村校区教学楼S406；腾讯会议ID：418 713 860

内容简介：Tariff may be imposed by countries on any imported end-product in a trade war. Tariff not only shapes the global supply chain, but also affects numerous firms assembling the end-product and its parts. This paper investigates how the supply network of firms (SNF) is impacted by tariff from the perspective of assembly network of parts (ANP). We first propose a game theoretical model consisting of a two-node ANP and a four-node SNF to obtain general equilibrium. Then, both ANP and SNF are generalized in a simulation model, where firms' attributes (e.g., cost function) and vertical interaction (e.g., procurement) are defined. We find that ANP flatness relieves competitive pressure among firms and thus has a positive impact on firm performance and SNF robustness. Tariff can actually increase firm performance and SNF robustness if all parts of ANP can be assembled by firms in both countries. The tariff equilibrium, which is to impose high tariff, can be Pareto improved to escape from the prisoner’s dilemma. Based on the findings, we provide helpful insights for both firm managers and policy-makers.

主讲人简介：贺舟，中国科学院大学经济与管理学院副教授，博士生导师。管理科学与工程学会理事，期刊International Journal of Production Economics的客座主编。曾任公安部“十四五”公安新基建规划专家、新加坡国立大学高级研究员(Senior Research Fellow)、麻省理工学院GCP项目科学家(MIT CREATE Scientist for Global Connector Program)。长期致力于城市经济、数字经济两类复杂管理系统的建模、仿真与优化研究，提出了多主体仿真框架ESTOPT并成功应用于新加坡国家环境局的研究课题中，作为特邀嘉宾在俄罗斯科学院国际在线研讨会上介绍该框架。主持多项国家和省部级课题，以第一作者或通讯作者在European Journal of Operational Research、International Journal of Production Economics等国内外重要期刊上发表论文20余篇，研究成果先后获得上海市哲学社会科学优秀成果二等奖、全球运筹优化挑战赛优秀奖、中国科学院优秀博士学位论文、中国科学院院长优秀奖等奖励。